At last, March is officially here.
With Selection Sunday only a week and a half away, the Colorado women’s basketball team is well-positioned to not only compete on the sport’s biggest stage, but to do some damage once it is there.
At 22-7 following a heartbreaking overtime loss against Stanford and a lopsided win against Cal last week, the Buffs are No. 20 in the most recent Associated Press poll and are the No. 3 seed for the Pac-12 Tournament, which begins tomorrow in Las Vegas.
So where does Colorado sit? Let’s take a look at the Buffs’ NCAA Tournament credentials and where they may end up once the bracket is revealed on March 12.
We’ll have a post-Pac-12 Tournament update on this, once the Buffs’ resume is solidified.
The resume
Record: 22-7 (13-5 Pac-12)
NET ranking: 21
Record vs. NET top 50: 7-6
Record vs. 51-100: 6-1
Record vs. 101-200: 7-0
Record vs. 201+: 3-0
Record in past 10 games: 7-3
Remaining games
March 2 vs. USC/Oregon State
Mock brackets
ESPN (updated Feb. 28): No. 4 seed playing Long Beach State in Boulder
CBS Sports (updated March 1): No. 4 seed, no opponent specified
From that story:
Coach JR Payne has led an impressive turnaround over the past several seasons. In 2018-19, Colorado finished last in Pac-12 play at 2-16. They've increased wins in conference play every year since and now hold the No. 3 seed in the Pac-12 Tournament at 13-5. When the teams above them are both projected NCAA Tournament No. 1 seeds, that's not too bad.
What it means
For one, it means that the Buffs are safely in the field. That, in and of itself, is a tremendous accomplishment. Not only would it be just their third NCAA Tournament appearance since 2004, but it would mark the first time that the program has made it to the Big Dance in back-to-back years since it did so in 2003 and 2004.
Colorado’s resume is strong, with few, if any, glaring holes. The Buffs don’t have a loss to a team outside the NET top 100, with their worst defeat coming against No. 75 Texas Tech, which is 16-11 this season. Additionally, they have three wins against teams currently ranked in the AP top 25 – No. 3 Utah, No. 19 UCLA and No. 21 Arizona. Their seven losses have come against teams that are a combined 132-45, three of which are ranked in the top 25.
With a spot in the tournament virtually guaranteed, Colorado can now focus on improving its seed. It’s not a trivial matter. Right now, the Buffs are widely projected as a No. 4 seed, which is an important distinction. Unlike the men’s tournament, which holds all of its games at neutral-site venues, the first two rounds of the NCAA women’s basketball tournament take place at on-campus sites for the top seed in each four-team pod, which means teams with one, two, three or four seeds can advance to the Sweet 16 without ever leaving their own gym. As things stand now in the mock brackets, Colorado’s first two games (should it win its first matchup) would take place in Boulder.
In recent years, that has been a decided advantage. In the past five NCAA Tournaments – so not including 2020, which was canceled in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and 2021, which was held entirely in San Antonio – 59 of the 80 spots on the Sweet 16 have been occupied by top-four seeds that played home games in the tournament’s opening week.
