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Published Nov 18, 2022
Staff roundtable: Perspective and predictions for Colorado-Washington
Nicolette Edwards and Craig Meyer
Staff writers
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For the final time this season, Colorado hits the road for a game. If nothing else, it will at least be in a scenic location this time around.

The Buffs will face off Saturday night against No. 17 Washington, which enters the matchup as a 30.5-point favorite following a thrilling road victory last week against a top-10 Oregon team.

While there isn’t much drama over which team will leave Husky Stadium Saturday night with a victory, there are still questions that surround this Colorado team and the program as a whole. This week, CU Sports Report staff writers Nicolette Edwards and Craig Meyer address those topics, from what the Buffs can do to maintain some semblance of competitiveness to whether Washington’s turnaround under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer should be considered a sign of hope for Colorado, which will be bringing in a new coach to Boulder here in the next few weeks. And, as always, they send you away with a prediction.

Let’s dive into things…

1. Washington has won four straight, including a huge win over No. 6 Oregon last week. What's Colorado's best hope for keeping this game competitive?

Nicolette: Colorado’s momentum continues to disintegrate on third downs with their current 34.3% conversion rate to their opponents’ 54%. Last week was especially bad in the first half against USC, as they went zero for seven on third downs. Colorado could’ve very well taken the lead early on. The Buffs took the reliable route of feeding Alex Fontenot on the 3rd and three at the USC 10 in the first quarter, but Fontenot was tripped up and CU took the field goal. I think it was the right play call just for a three-yard gain, but USC’s front saw that Fontenot run from a mile away. They crowded the box in seconds, limiting a clear seam and defensive end Soloman Byrd instantly broke up the block and caught Fontenot’s foot.

“We really just need to stop shooting ourselves in the foot,” Fontenot said. “That's what it comes down to. You look at the tape. It's just one person off from being great. So I think that's the main thing we need to do is just stop killing ourselves.”

While the Buffs’ offense missed short third-down opportunities, the Buffs’ defense allowed Williams to convert on 3rd and 19 and 3rd and 23. Colorado’s pass rush fell apart on those plays and Williams was able to escape with minimal pressure and find Kyle Ford. Those third-and-longs are easy opportunities to get stops. Looking at a quarterback such as Micheal Penix Jr., the Buffs’ front cannot allow him ample time as they did with Caleb Williams because he’ll find wide receivers Jalen McMillian and Rome Odunze.

Craig: Defensively, it’s probably something similar to what happened in the first half of last week’s loss against USC – force some turnovers and get them into situations where they pick up yards but ultimately end up with a field goal or no points at all, like if they choose to go for a fourth down, but are unable to convert. Washington is tied for fourth in the Football Bowl Subdivision for fewest turnovers this season, with seven, but then again, USC is No. 1 in that category and last Friday, an early Caleb Williams interception kept Colorado in the game far longer than it would have been otherwise.

Offensively, leaning on the run game is the only feasible path for success, especially with Jordyn Tyson out for the year. Given Alex Fontenot’s performance last week, with 108 yards on 20 carries, and the likely return of Deion Smith, the Buffs have two solid backs who they can rotate in and out, all while running behind what has been a good offensive line for much of the season. By doing that, they could not only pick up yards, but drain clock and dictate the tempo of a road game in which they’re a significant underdog.

2. Washington has gone from four wins last year to eight and counting this season by hiring Kalen DeBoer and bringing in transfer QB Michael Penix Jr. What could a realistic one-year turnaround look like for the Buffs next season?

Nicolette: As seen across the Pac-12 and FBS, a new head coach can work wonders for a team in just one year. A less realistic scenario would be for Colorado to pull off a USC: bring in a new head coach with a dynamic quarterback and squeeze every last dominant resource out of the portal. The only person that comes to mind that is compatible with this scenario is former Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin and bringing along a young quarterback in Robby Ashford. Maybe Paul Chryst and junior Graham Mertez could work, as well, but that’s another implausible scenario.

Current trends point to Bronco Mendenhall being favored for the HC position. He’s a quality choice and a safe fit, but he’ll have to work his own wonders in finding a top-tier quarterback for Colorado to even be considered as a competitive program.

“At the end of the day, when you have a proven trigger puller [QB], it's done at a very high level, and then you surround them with skill whether you retain that skill or whether you add that skill, it's obviously lending itself to a quick turnaround,” interim head coach Mike Sanford said. “But there are things in place that you have to have as an institution to be able to give yourself that chance for that talent acquisition and make a massive impact.”

Colorado needs to be active in the transfer portal, as Arizona and Jedd Fisch were by picking up Jayden de Laura and other offensive weapons, but on an institutional level, CU needs to expand their credit requirements for transfers in order to reach further into the portal talent pool.

In one year, with Mendenhall leading the Buffs and a new quarterback, I could envision Colorado gaining a few more wins with an improved offense. However, CU’s defense raises concerns with all of the veterans leaving after this season.

I’m interested to see who Mendenhall (or potentially someone else) would bring at the offensive and defensive coordinating position — another crucial element in projecting the team’s future success.

Simply, Colorado's turnaround won't be quick without a quality head coach and a portal quarterback to take positive steps forward.

Craig: I don’t think any turnaround from Colorado would be quite as drastic as what Washington has done this season, but then again, if you’re building up from one win, you have more room to grow.

One critical difference, at least to me, is that DeBoer took over a more talented roster than what Colorado’s next coach – whoever that might be – will inherit. It’s easier to say now given what the Huskies have accomplished, but their struggles last season under Jimmy Lake weren’t necessarily due to a lack of talent, which is what made it so frustrating for Washington fans and confusing for others who pay close attention to the sport. The Huskies had dudes; they simply weren’t being utilized correctly.

I have an extremely hard time believing Colorado will be as bad next season as they have been this one and with what appears to be a slightly easier non-conference schedule – even with two Power Five opponents, including a road game at TCU – it should be able to pull off at least two wins. Let’s set 4-8 as a projected record that’s both realistic and will make fans satisfied by showing demonstrated improvement.

3. What about Mike Sanford's stint as interim head coach has stood out the most? And does he deserve consideration for the permanent position?

Nicolette: Sanford’s overtime win against Cal is a game I will never forget. It was an incredible comeback and a historic moment. That win, even though it was short-lived, provided the Buffs with new hope that they so desperately needed.

Sanford is genuine and honest on and off the record and he truly, whole-heartedly cares about the players. Since that late Sunday press conference on Oct. 2, Sanford has done everything right, selflessly approaching this interim role and doing everything in his power to do what is best for the players.

However, I think it would be best that Sanford and the CU program part ways and explore other options. Under Sanford and interim offensive coordinator Clay Patterson, CU’s offense has improved slightly, turning in its best performances against Cal (20 points) and Arizona State (34 points), but there’s not enough evidence on the gridiron to qualify Sanford or Patterson for a permanent position. (Some of the lack of evidence due to J.T. Shrout.)

Sanford was dealt difficult matchups this final four-game stretch of his interim tenure and handled them both on and off the field, the best he could.

Craig: While a change of pace and a new voice can galvanize a previously meandering (or worse) team, there’s a risk of an interim head coach losing a team. There’s personal pride and competitiveness, of course, but if players take a 10,000-foot look at their situation, there isn’t a lot to play for, especially if you’re in the position Colorado was when Sanford took over for Karl Dorrell – 0-5 and nowhere close to a win, all while the most difficult part of its schedule still loomed ahead. Even if the Buffs weren’t able to beat Cal and were still winless, I have been impressed with his ability to keep players motivated, engaged and able to find joy in a game they all ostensibly love. There have still been blowout losses, sure, but even in those games, Colorado’s players still look engaged in a way they didn’t under Dorrell.

Beyond what has happened on the field, Sanford’s just an incredible likable guy who seems adept at building a positive and productive culture around a program. Selfishly, from a media standpoint, he has been excellent to deal with – engaging, insightful and open (at least by the low standards of college football coaches).

Now, do I think he merits consideration for the full-time post? No. If the Buffs are able to pull off an upset in one of these final two games, maybe that calculus changes a bit, but I still think there are better, more proven candidates out there to turn to. Having seen up close what he has been able to do with Colorado, I think of Sanford as something more than the guy who failed at a Western Kentucky program where his three predecessors had all won big. He was in his mid-30s at the time he was hired there and I believe coaches, as they get older, are capable of evolving, improving and learning from past mistakes and experiences. But I simply don’t think Colorado is in a position to strike out on another coaching hire. And while Sanford may very well be better equipped to succeed than he was at Western Kentucky, I think there are surer bets and more worthwhile risks out there than someone who has been fired from two of his past three jobs.

4. Do you anticipate Colorado having as much of a turnover in the portal as last year? Why or why not?

Nicolette: I don’t think last year's exodus will be as bad as what we may see in the coming months because of the culture that Sanford established and I also think last year served as a learning lesson for coaches to put more emphasis on player retention.

A frequent topic this week was how the freshman class is bought into the program.

“We kind of have confidence that we're going to be the change in this program,” freshman inside linebacker Eoghan Kerry said. “I think that buy-in is definitely going to contribute to Colorado being on top again and I think the freshman class is starting to buy in and stick together.”

Running backs coach Darian Hagan was one of the few remaining coaches from last year’s staff that saw their top talent enter the portal. Ideally, the coaches want to retain as many players as they can, and I think they are effectively doing so by wrapping their arms around the players in this time of adversity and taking time to assess their needs.

“You want to be able to retain them because now guys can go somewhere for a lucrative offer,” Hagan said this week. “All the guys that we have, especially the freshman class, they want to be the future, they want to help the program get back to where it was.”

Craig: I think there’s a good chance. I don’t think it will be as comparatively bad as last year, when Colorado was bringing back its coach from the previous two years and still endured a series of exits that perhaps should have sounded more alarm bells than it did (not that folks weren’t starting to panic).

Roster turnover is a given for virtually any program that undergoes a coaching change, something that was true before the NCAA passed a new one-time transfer exemption. Now, with that new rule in place, those defections are that much more likely. I totally get it. Players commit to a coach as much as, if not more than, a specific school or program. Will there be guys who love Colorado as a school and program and don’t want to leave unless forced to do so? Sure. Will there be other players who will be sold on the vision and promises of the new coach? Absolutely. But there will be a good number of departures, no question. It’s simply the way this all works.

5. What is your score prediction and why?

Nicolette: Washington 42, Colorado 20

Someone call Tom Cruise because this matchup will be another mission impossible for the Buffs, with Washington coming off a well-executed win against Oregon.

Trevor Woods will most likely be back this week, which will assist CU on those goalline scenarios, but the Huskies will still find a way to penetrate, as they are averaging 489.2 yards per game – eighth in FBS while also ranking 13th in scoring offense.

Craig: Washington 45, Colorado 13

We’re at the point of the season where these explanations only have to be so thorough, but Washington’s another opponent with a significant talent and schematic advantage over the Buffs. I think Colorado will have some success running the ball between Fontenot and Smith, but how much will that matter when their team will likely be spending most of the night playing from behind, unable to stop Michael Penix Jr. or the Huskies’ offense in any meaningful way?

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