Colorado will be playing the rare Friday night college game Saturday when it matches up against No. 8 USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
It’s the second game in a four-game set in which the Buffs will match up against an opponent currently ranked among the top 25 teams nationally by the College Football Playoff committee.
The Trojans enter the contest as a 34.5-point favorite, so there isn’t much suspense on who will emerge as the victor, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions surrounding Colorado beyond who it might ultimately hire as its next coach.
This week, CU Sports Report staff writers Nicolette Edwards and Craig Meyer delve into some of those queries and offer up predictions for what might unfold on Friday night.
Do you think CU can be as successful in the pass game as they've been in the past weeks without Jordyn Tyson?
Nicolette: Last week, I wasn’t confident that Tyson would reach 100 yards against Oregon, but he surpassed my prediction, finishing with his best game all season with 137 yards and one touchdown. Tyson was playing his best football and began to trend upward at the end of October and into November until his freshman season came to a devastating end in the fourth quarter after suffering a lower leg injury.
His left leg went limp, he was helped off the field by team medical staff, a dispiriting moment that symbolized the Buffs’ season. It was difficult to watch the Buffs’ highest-scoring player have an end like that.
As Sanford said on Tuesday, Montana Lemonious-Craig is “going to be critical” in order to create a similar spark and production in the pass game. Since Lemonious-Craig’s 119-yard game against Cal, Tyson received more targets in each game than him, as he should because Tyson is the more reliable pass catcher, but I think Lemonious-Craig and Tyson possess comparable products on the field. Lemonious-Craig executed his share of deep passes and with increased targets, I think he’ll have another 100-yard game on Friday.
Looking at CU’s depth, he is the Buffs’ most skilled next man up and there isn’t a significant gap in talent between Tyson and Lemonious-Craig. With him and the activation of Daniel Arias, the Buffs’ offense will put up similar numbers as they had with Tyson.
“We're leaning on Daniel this week a lot and I'm looking forward to seeing him go out there and execute,” Lemonious-Craig said.
Craig: It’s certainly possible. Had Jordyn Tyson not been injured and been available for the Buffs in this game, I would have been much more confident saying yes, but still, I believe there’s a scenario in which Colorado can be successful throwing the ball.
In the past two weeks, the Buffs have thrown for a combined 469 yards, their highest total in back-to-back games this season. If you dig a little deeper, it’s been a product of a high passing volume, as they’re averaging only about 6.8 yards per attempt, but for an offense that finished under 200 passing yards in three of their first four games, you take what you’ve been getting recently.
Of course, that production came with Tyson – who was on the receiving end of 252 of those yards (an astonishing 53.7%) – but if you take a look at how USC’s pass defense has fared for much of this season, there’s at least some justifiable hope. In their past three games, the Trojans have allowed opponents to throw for 1,210 yards – an average of 403.3 per game – while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. The first two of those could be excused as they came against Utah, which has one of the Pac-12’s best quarterbacks, and Arizona, which (out of nowhere) has one of the league’s best passing attacks, but against Cal – an offense even Colorado was able to neuter – they gave up 406 passing yards, by far the highest mark this season for a generally impotent Golden Bears offense.
Do I think it’s likely Colorado comes anywhere close to that? Probably not. But is it possible? Absolutely.
With USC set as a 34-point favorite and 15-0 in the series since Colorado joined the Pac-12, what, if anything, do the Buffs have working in their favor for this matchup Friday?
Nicolette: The numbers do paint a pretty daunting picture of this matchup, but Cal did finish with 469 yards of total offense last Saturday. In the Trojans’ past two matchups, Cal and Arizona, those teams were able to chip away USC’s defense in the second half.
Cal had 179 yards and one touchdown in the first half then put up 290 yards and four touchdowns in the second. The week prior, Arizona’s offense ended with one touchdown, two field goals and 188 yards in the first half and 355 yards, three TDs and a field goal in the second.
This season showed that the Buffs are not a second-half team, but with the correct halftime adjustments, they can tack on more offensive yards. The Buffs topped their previous, season-high total yardage – 359 against Arizona State — against Oregon with 367 yards of total offense. Cheers for progress, even if it’s just eight yards.
I’m taking this with a grain of salt and holding on to it for dear life.
Craig: Sadly for the Buffs, probably the biggest thing working in their favor heading into this matchup has nothing to do with them.
Despite its 8-1 record and undeniably impressive turnaround in year one under Lincoln Riley, USC has had a bad habit this year of letting lesser teams hang around. They beat a horrid Stanford team by only 13. While that could be written off since it came in just the second game of the season, the problem has actually been more pronounced as of late. In back-to-back weeks, the Trojans only beat Arizona by eight and Cal by six, with the latter of those two matchups occurring at home, to make matters more puzzling.
What is the biggest concern for Colorado in this matchup?
Nicolette: Similar to last week, USC possesses a multifaceted offense giving Colorado another challenging week in keeping their opponents out of the end zone. Colorado’s defense won’t have another repeat of the Cal game this season.
On offense, I envision J.T. Shrout throwing one or two interceptions again, potentially into the hands of former Buff Mehki Blackmon, who has two interceptions this season. Interceptions by former Buff Christian Gonzalez on back-to-back drives in the third quarter last week against Oregon put them two scores back in a matter of minutes. The Buffs are susceptible to turnovers in the air and on the ground with the sacking machine that is Tuli Tuipulotu. He has nine sacks this season for a loss of 59 yards – the most sacks in all of FBS.
If the Buffs want to stay in the game, they can’t provide the Trojans with more offensive advantages than they already have.
One notable stat for the CU defense: USC only has one turnover this season, which was against Arizona State. Caleb Williams rarely misses and is a very dynamic quarterback, as Craig mentioned earlier this week.
Craig: How much time do you have?
The biggest and most obvious concern is Colorado’s sieve-like secondary facing off against Caleb Williams and one of the sport’s most dangerous passing attacks. The Trojans are 13th among 131 FBS teams in passing yards per game, with 313.7, and have finished with at least 350 passing yards in three-consecutive contests. Given the Buffs’ struggles in stopping lesser aerial assaults, the only way I envision them stopping that USC streak is if the game is so lopsided so early that the Trojans effectively abandon the pass.
While I think there’s a chance Colorado can put up some points and be generally competent on offense, I don’t really trust J.T. Shrout’s inaccuracy and occasional reckless decision-making against a defense that’s tied for third nationally in interceptions this season.
Which Buffs, if any, could you see making it on an NFL roster?
Nicolette: Inside linebacker Josh Chandler-Semedo has not played one inadequate game during his time with the Buffs. A few of his games early in the season were outliers (UCLA, Minnesota, TCU, all of which he had six or fewer tackles), but he has emerged as the Buffs’ most consistent player.
He is ranked fifth in the Pac-12 for the most tackles, with 77, and in fourth is safety Trevor Woods, with 79. Including the 77 tackles, Chandler-Semedo currently has 2.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, two quarterback pressures, one pass breakup and seven third-down stops.
There are lots of incredible linebackers in FBS, but Chandler-Semedo should be in that NFL conversation.
(Also, quick note: Trevor Woods is second in the nation with 63 solo tackles.)
Craig: I’ll echo Nikki’s sentiment and say Chandler-Semedo, especially if we’re talking about guys from this team who can be on an NFL roster next season. At least in my mind, he has been the Buffs’ best defensive player this season and his production this season could be attractive to NFL teams. At 5-foot-10 and 230 pounds, he’s got decent enough size to play linebacker at the next level. I could also see Tommy Brown somewhere in the NFL next season, too.
Beyond next year, I think Tyson is the obvious pick. He’s doing things you don’t often see from a freshman wideout and he’s putting up numbers with a revolving door of quarterbacks, none of whom are particularly good at this stage in their careers.
What is your score prediction and why?
Nicolette: USC 45, Colorado 17
USC has rolled through Pac-12 opponents this season and Colorado is at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. I observed CU’s tendencies in these past nine games, and this is not news to anyone, but they cannot play complementary football.
I would like to see the Buffs just have fun out there, do something crazy like what Oregon did, throwing to a lineman for a touchdown, having a linebacker score and executing some trick plays. Let’s throw some caution into the wind and try something new.
Craig: USC 52, Colorado 16
I would have predicted Colorado to score more points against a vulnerable USC defense, but so much of what the Buffs were able to do the past few weeks was predicated upon Tyson. Without their best, increasingly most reliable offense weapon, I think they’ll struggle. On defense, there’s no conceivable way, barring an injury to Williams, that they’ll be able to slow down the Trojans.
