Following a 42-9 drubbing at the hands of Oregon State last Saturday, Colorado returns home to face Arizona State tomorrow, with a 5:30 p.m. local time kickoff at Folsom Field.
For a Buffs team with a brutal schedule in the season’s final month, Saturday’s matchup with the Sun Devils stands as an opportunity – perhaps a final one – for some positivity in a season that has offered little of it.
Before things get going tomorrow, CU Sports Report staff writers Nicolette Edwards and Craig Meyer break down some of the key questions heading into the contest and offer a prediction.
This would seem to be a winnable game for the Buffs. If they are able to prevail, what is the most likely blueprint for success?
Nicolette: True freshman quarterback Owen McCown, a key part of their success in the pass game, is out again this week. With J.T. Shrout making the start, along with the many drops from last Saturday, I am compelled to push the run game especially that Deion Smith will most likely play as well as the likely return of Alex Fontenot. Fonenot has missed the majority of his final season with Colorado due to a rib injury on Sept. 10 against Air Force.
It’s uncertain how many snaps Fontenot will receive because the coaches may want to ease him back in. Saturday marks the end of week 7 of his six- to eight-week healing period.
There are four “ORs” on the running back depth chart this week, but it’s good to see the Buffs gain their depth back after each back (not including recently activated Dante Capolungo) experienced some type of injury this season.
Shrout has a tendency to throw some fast balls, but if the pass is on target, the Buffs’ wide receivers have to make those catches.
I’d still recommend a heavy emphasis on the run game, but don’t forget about Jordyn Tyson and Montana Lemonious-Craig. They’ve shown the most consistency this year. This game also presents a better opportunity for interim OC Clay Patterson to call a trick play as well. Tyson brought CU into scoring position entering the fourth quarter against Cal with a sneaky 37-yard pass to Lemonious-Craig.
On defense, they need to monitor the Sun Devils’ most utilized running back Xazavian Valladay, similar to how they kept an eye on Cal’s Jaydn Ott. Valladay is the Sun Devils top weapon acquiring the most carries and usually a few targets during a game.
Simply, start fast and maintain the rhythm. If they do so, they can chip away the Sun Devils’ limited road confidence, as they are 0-3 away. At least get into field goal range because ASU did lose to Stanford by giving up five field goals.
Craig: Even against a more underwhelming opponent like Arizona State, the pathway to victory is precariously narrow for this Colorado team.
There are a few different variables that have to go the Buffs’ way. They don’t have to shut down the Sun Devils’ run game, but they do have to neutralize it a bit. Really, it has to control the Arizona State offense as much as it can because this is a team that’s gone nearly a full year without scoring more than 20 points in a game.
Given some of J.T. Shrout’s struggles this season, it would be preferable for Colorado to have a productive run game, bleed the clock and control the game. In what will likely be a lower-scoring matchup, they’ll have to win the field position battle, pinning the Sun Devils deep with good punts and getting enough traction offensively so that they’re not giving up a possession near midfield. Colorado can afford to turn the ball over – it did so three times in the win against Cal, after all – but it can’t be giving the ball away inside its own 30 or 40. It absolutely has to make the most of its trips inside the opposing 30, at least coming away with a field goal. It’s also going to need a little luck, too, whether it’s a fumble recovery or special-teams miscues.
It will take a lot of those things going right for the Buffs to come away with the win, but unlike a lot of their other games this season, there’s at least a path to that destination.
J.T. Shrout makes his first start at Folsom Field this week. In weeks past he played better at home in relief (21-of-35, 226 yards 2 TD, 0 INT) than he played on the road. What is your expectation for Shrout on Saturday?
Nicolette: As we’ve witnessed, Shrout at home is much better than on the road. He is a bit of a wildcard in that he can produce in relief, but a full game is a much different scenario. I thought last weekend would be his chance to differentiate himself, but it was made more clear why McCown claims the starting role.
Saturday presents another interesting opportunity for him because the circumstances are even more ideal now that he’s playing at home against a more manageable defense.
The drops did not help Shrout’s case last Saturday, but ball placement and timing will once again be key for a productive evening. He threw into some crowds against Oregon State with his two interceptions. If the play begins to collapse, he has to work to find an open line and run or read the field and connect with another option downfield.
Easier said than done, but the film showed many missed opportunities for Shrout to convert.
ASU’s defensive linemen have combined for 21 quarterback hits on the season, the 15th-most of any defensive line in the FBS. The group also has 63 total hurries, 29th among all FBS defensive lines. It’s a concerning stat, as Shrout often takes his time in the pocket, but the Buffs offensive line is CU’s most solid unit, some players grading out over 80% recently, and only allowing one sack against OSU. Now, it’s Shrout’s time to execute.
Craig: They’re admittedly not high. I do think being at home will help, but to me, it’s telling that most of his success this season has come in relief appearances, when the opponent may not have game-planned or prepared for him as much as it did Brendon Lewis or Owen McCown.
In games in which he has started this season, Shrout is 22 of 61 (36.1%) for 281 yards, 4.6 yards per attempt, one touchdown, three interceptions and a fumble. Yes, one of those starts came in a downpour at Air Force, but the two under starts were played under fair conditions.
I expect him to at least complete more than half of his passes, but beyond that, I’m not totally sure. I’ll say he throws for somewhere around 200 yards with a touchdown and a pick.
If Colorado ends up winning this game, though, I think it will have more to do with the Buffs’ defense than Shrout.
What should be the biggest concern for Colorado in this matchup with Arizona State?
Nicolette: Quarterback Trenton Bourguet is favored to start on Saturday. Bourguet had his time to shine against previously ranked Washington when he came in after Florida transfer Emory Jones took a hit in the second quarter. Bourguet brought new life to the Sun Devils offense that day, throwing for 182 yards, three touchdowns and winning the game, 45-38.
Bourguet is the key to the Sun Devils’ recent progress. He didn’t see the field against Stanford and it showed as Jones (with a mix of questionable offensive play calls) couldn’t beat the Cardinal.
Quality coverage on Valladay and wide receiver Elijihah Badger, along with consistent pressure on Bourguet, can generate a winning margin for the Buffs.
Shrout starting again against a front seven that produces consistent pressure is another concern of mine.
Craig: When compiling the scouting report for Arizona State earlier this week, there wasn’t a ton to pick from in the ‘What they do well’ category, but unfortunately for the Buffs, one of those things is running the ball.
The Sun Devils’ top two running backs are averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry – Xazavian Valladay (5.6 yards per carry) and Daniyel Ngata (5.9) – and unlike Cal’s Jaydn Ott, those numbers aren’t inflated by a single outrageous game, they haven’t had a ton of disappearing acts. Only one of Colorado’s seven opponents this season has averaged fewer than 5.2 yards per carry in a game, so unless a team is overwhelmingly pass happy and/or has a porous offensive line, it’s fair to expect that team to have success against the Buffs.
What do you sense the confidence level/motivation level is for this team after another humbling loss last week erased the short-lived momentum from the win over Cal?
Nicolette: Colorado continues to chug along this football season. The excitement of last week diminished this week, and from my perspective, it's a more “business as usual week” due to a similar, blowout loss.
Patterson’s remark on Wednesday that “We’ve got to get better and we got to get better fast,” brought flashbacks to media availabilities with former head coach Karl Dorrell. Similar coaching protocols to minimize issues and put the work in during practice to have better results were present this week, but the Buffs are very familiar with grinding and moving forward.
They’re taking it game by game, but they’re confident going into this game playing at home against an opponent that is in a similar boat of playing under an interim coach and withstanding frequent losses.
Craig: Honestly, they seem to be handling it pretty well. It’s not because they’re oblivious or simply don’t care, but there seems to be a resilient spirit that has built up over these past few weeks that has allowed them to handle a setback like a 33-point loss.
I had spoken with Terrance Lang and Gerald Chatman earlier in the week and they both cited the scene at the Champions Center on Monday – customarily a day off for the Buffs – in which most of the defense was there breaking down film. The fact that was taking place fewer than two full days after a loss is telling.
Again, I think this is where Mike Sanford’s presence and influence is most felt. You don’t necessarily need an energetic, rah-rah guy leading your program to be successful, but when you’re near the bottom of the conference standings, it can sure help to have that kind of person in charge and setting the tone.
What is your score prediction and why?
Nicolette: Colorado 20, Arizona State 14
This win is dependent on Colorado playing the same complementary football as they did against Cal. After last weekend, I am curious how interim defensive coordinator Gerald Chatman adjusted to recreate a performance similar to the one on Oct. 15. Getting back to basics seems to be the key as they process new defensive schemes.
This interim-on-interim matchup presents an even opportunity for both teams to gain back their confidence. ASU possesses an effective run game and a defense that held Stanford to only field goals last weekend. CU has new faces entering the offensive rotation, providing them with more effective options. The Buffs defense also showed some progress in their run defense, allowing 270 rushing yards against Oregon State – not as low as the Cal game, but not as high as we saw under Dorrell and former defensive coordinator Chris Wilson.
Here’s to another week of stopping the run!
However, Colorado has a secret weapon playing at home: the Folsom Magic. “That’s a real thing,” Sanford said Tuesday. “I felt it.”
Craig: Arizona State 24, Colorado 16
For all their flaws, Arizona State is still a more talented team that has earned a more impressive home victory under its interim coach – beating then-No. 21 Washington – than Colorado has. While the Buffs have been embarrassed in most of their losses this season, the Sun Devils have at least been relatively competitive, with an average margin of defeat of 13 points per game, which included road losses to top-15 USC and Oklahoma State teams that each came by 17 points.
To me, this is a matchup of a bad team against a terrible one. What’s the difference between the two designations? Let’s say a touchdown and a two-point conversion.
