On Saturday, Colorado will travel down to Falcon Stadium for the first time since 1974 to take on Air Force in a matchup between two programs with drastically different outlooks after one week of the regular season.
To get you ready for the game in the hours before kickoff, CU Sports Report writers Nicolette Edwards and Craig Meyer discuss some of the keys to the contest, an evaluation of where the Buffs sit after last week’s loss to TCU, guesses at what might happen at quarterback and, of course, some score predictions.
What issue from Week 1 are you most confident that Colorado can fix quickly?
Nicolette: Freshman punter Ashton Logan had a short punt to TCU’s 40 and WR Derius Davis ran it back to the endzone.
An unideal punt, but gradually I think Logan will develop more consistency and accuracy game after game. WR Dane Kinamon is the returner for the Falcons and he is indeed fast. He had a 71-yard run on Saturday. Logan will have to put Kinamon way back to prevent another scoring opportunity. Rocky start for Logan, but he can only get better from here.
Craig: It’s hard to be much worse than Colorado was last week – at least in the second half – but when the opponent awaiting it in its second game is better by most measurements than the squad that just beat the Buffs by 25, it’s not necessarily guaranteed that any particular facet of the game will go better this time around.
Statistically, their pass defense will almost certainly be better because of how little Air Force throws the ball, but that would be a cop-out for me to go with that as an answer. I hate to tie things too much back to the ongoing quarterback debate, but a feasible fix would be seeing if Shrout can do more with the offense than Lewis did. Are those drives he led against TCU misleading flashes that wouldn’t translate over the course of an entire game? Or are they a glimpse at what he could do if given a bigger role? We might get to find out Saturday.
What issue are you most concerned will linger?
Nicolette: Colorado’s inability to score is my lingering concern. Much of the discussion this week was focused around Air Force’s offense, but Dorrell said:
"Their defensive front is a very unique front; they do some different looks in a lot of different ways. This team, they’re gonna make you earn everything that you can get. They’re going to be disciplined in what they do, and you’re just gonna have to out-execute [them] and do what you need to do offensively to have a good offensive performance.”
Air Force plays disciplined and clean football as they are ranked top 12 nationally for fewest penalties in the last five seasons. In 2021, their defense only surrendered 2.3 points per game in the first quarter and held opponents to 3.4 yards per rush. The Buffs had five penalties last week, not too many, but their biggest challenge is in matching or succeeding Air Force’s offensive efficiency.
Air Force also has nine returning starters on their defense. However, Air Force’s head coach Troy Calhoun said the interior of their D-line, inside linebackers and DBs had some turnover.
“Jordan Jackson’s with the New Orleans Saints,” Calhoun said. “He was an excellent player for us. Demonte Meeks was an outstanding inside linebacker, team captain that graduated. Then we had a corner-safety combination, Tre Bugg and Corvan Taylor that also graduated. So really, you’re looking at a good number of spots on defense we have to replace.”
However, last Saturday they held one of FCS’s top-25 teams, Northern Iowa, to three points in the first three quarters and won the game 48-17.
Capitalizing in the pass game will be crucial for Colorado to maneuver around the defense. Putting Daniel Arias, Brady Russell, R.J. Sneed, Montana Lemonious-Craig and Jordyn Tyson on the Falcons' younger DBs are their best schematic options. Also, CU will try to get Alex Fontenot going on the ground. However, in order for the pass game to be successful, Shrout needs to step in.
Craig: I simply don’t think this is a talented team, especially on offense. The preseason discussion of players coming together and being motivated by all the slights directed their way sound great in a press conference, but there’s a reason this squad was picked to finish last in a conference that isn’t particularly strong compared to its Power Five peers. A team that finished 4-8 last season and lost many of its best players can’t realistically be expected to compete, short of a massive influx of talent that Colorado didn’t enjoy during the offseason.
Granted, this is a group that could improve over the course of the season and there’s a scenario in which the first half against TCU was more representative of what the offense will be than what transpired in the second half, but on paper, I just don’t see any part of Colorado’s offense that would scare me as an opponent. Last season among 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, the Buffs were 121st in scoring offense, 129th in total offense, 126th in passing yards per game, 119th in third-down conversion percentage, 108th in yards per carry and 102nd in completion percentage. And that was before they lost two of their top wide receivers and their former conference player of the year at running back.
