Colorado begins a grueling final month of a grueling season Saturday with a game against its highest-ranked opponent yet this season (since now-No. 7 TCU was unranked at the time they played) – Oregon.
The No. 8 Ducks have been on a tear since losing to Georgia by 46 in their season opener in Atlanta. Under first-year head coach Dan Lanning, they have won seven consecutive games, highlighted by a 45-30 victory against then-No. 9 UCLA on Oct. 22.
Led by Auburn transfer Bo Nix at quarterback, Oregon possesses one of college football’s most potent offenses, one that’s averaging 42.4 points per game.
The Buffs have lost eight of their past nine meetings to the Ducks, beginning with a 38-16 loss in the Fiesta Bowl in 2002. Oregon has won the past two meetings by a combined score of 97-32.
Before the teams take the field Saturday, let’s learn a little more about the Ducks.
Game details
Who | Colorado (1-7, 1-4 Pac-12) vs. Oregon (7-1, 5-0)
Where | Folsom Field
When | 1:30 p.m. MT Saturday
TV | ESPN
Oregon Ducks (7-1)
Location: Eugene, Ore.
Conference: Pac-12
Coach: Dan Lanning (1st season at Oregon, 7-1 record)
2021 record: 10-4
Scoring offense rank (of 131 Football Bowl Subdivision teams): 5th (42.4 PPG)
Scoring defense rank: 81st (28.4 PPG)
Total offense rank: 3rd (525.8 YPG)
Total defense rank: 76th (386 YPG)
Five players to know
1. QB Bo Nix (No. 10): This is the man with whom the conversation around this team begins and ends. The Auburn transfer has been a revelation for the Ducks, a player almost entirely unrecognizable from what he was in his previous three college seasons. Nix was a talented-but-erratic player for the Tigers, never completing more than 61% of his passes and having a tendency to turn the ball over at inopportune times. This season at Oregon, he’s completing 72.3% of his passes and has 20 touchdowns to five interceptions. He’a also a potent running threat, with 441 yards, 7.3 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns. He currently has the fifth-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy, according to DraftKings. So, yeah, he’s pretty important.
2. ILB Noah Sewell (No. 1): The younger brother of former Ducks star and top-10 NFL Draft pick Penei Sewell, Noah Sewell has done excellent work making a name for himself. Last season as just a freshman, he earned first-team all-conference honors and came into this year as a preseason AP first-team all-American. He’s second on the team in tackles, with 36, and has one sack and two passes defended.
3. OLB DJ Johnson (No. 2): Johnson has been perhaps just as much of a pleasant surprise for the Ducks this year as Nix has. After recording three sacks in his first three college seasons, the Sacramento native has six in Oregon’s first eight games, including two in a win last week against Cal.
4. DB Christian Gonzalez (No. 0): A name that’s painfully familiar for Buffs fans. Gonzalez was one of a slew of major contributors who transferred out of the Colorado program after last season. He has made an immediate impact in Eugene, with a team-high seven passes defended this season. In his final year in Boulder, Gonzalez was an all-conference honorable mention inclusion.
5. OL T.J. Bass (No. 56): The Ducks have an excellent offensive line, with Bass helping lead the way. A first-team all-Pac-12 selection last season, the junior-college transfer has been an instrumental presence on a line that has allowed just one sack this season and has opened up holes for one of the top rushing attacks in the sport.
What Oregon does well
It might be a little simplistic, but the Ducks just have a really, really good offense. We’ve already touched on Nix’ dual-threat heroics this season, but it goes beyond him. Oregon has the No 9 rushing offense in the FBS, averaging 235.8 yards per game behind the likes of Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington, both of whom average 6.4 yards per rush. As a team, the Ducks are averaging 5.9 yards per carry, tying them for the fourth-best mark in the FBS.
Of course, there’s Nix, as well. In Oregon’s past three games, he has completed 78.4% of his passes, thrown for 960 yards, averaged 10.9 yards per attempt and had eight touchdown passes, along with six rushing scores.
That offensive unit has been exceptional at limiting mistakes, too. There’s Nix’s low interception total, but the Ducks are also one of two FBS teams this season that hasn’t lost a fumble (USC is the other).
Between all those numbers, it’s pretty easy to understand how this team has averaged 48 points per game since a humbling season-opening beatdown at the hands of Georgia.
Where Oregon is vulnerable
There aren’t a ton of glaring holes with this team. The defense isn’t great statistically, especially against the pass, but even though it’s 119th in passing yards allowed – giving up 280.2 per game – it’s surrendering a respectable 7.2 yards per attempt.
The Ducks’ biggest flaw might be on special teams, specifically with their punt and kick return coverages. They’re 123rd in punt return defense, giving up 14.7 yards per attempt, and they’re 117th in kickoff return defense, allowing 24.6 yards per attempt. If what Jordyn Tyson showcased last Saturday on punt returns against Arizona State is any indication of what he might be able to do the rest of the season on special teams, he – and his team, by extension – could do some damage. It’s one of the few ways that Colorado can generate some surprises and maybe hang around longer than it’s expected to.
For all of its accomplishments elsewhere, Oregon also isn’t exactly the most disciplined team, either. It ranks 102nd in penalties this season, with 59, and 98th in penalty yards per game, with 62.
Key stat
In addition to all of the other advantages it has going for it, Oregon also has history at its side heading into Saturday’s matchup. Colorado has lost 16 consecutive games against top-10 teams. The Buffs’ last victory in such a game came in 2007, when they beat then-No. 3 Oklahoma.
Colorado hasn’t just lost those 16 games – it hasn’t been close. Its average margin of defeat in those contests has been 26.6 points, with only two of those games decided by fewer than 17 points.
Key matchup
Colorado’s secondary against Nix. As encouraging as the Buffs’ season-high 34 points last week were, there is no conceivable way it will be able to keep up with Oregon if the Ducks score near their season average, so going with any kind of matchup between Colorado’s offense and Oregon’s defense seemed like an exercise in futility. As outstanding as Nix has been this season, he’s still a player with a past marred by poor decision-making. Perhaps the Buffs can force an interception or two that either gives them excellent field position or negates a Ducks drive. Hoping for Bad Bo Nix isn’t exactly a strategy, but at this point in Colorado’s season – and given the quality of its opponent – it’s about all it’s got.
