Instant Analysis: Colorado squeaks by with win in Corvallis
Final Score: Colorado 36, Oregon State 33
KEY MOMENT: In this case, moments. How do you win a game when you’re outgained 569-385 and the opponent has 280 rushing yards, converts 10 of 15 third down chances, and controls the ball for 35:40? Easy. You don’t commit any turnovers and you make stops in the red zone. In the first half, the Beavers drove into the red zone five times, but scored just 1 touchdown and kicked four field goals. As a result, the Buffs trailed by only 5 points, 19-14, at halftime even though they had been badly outplayed (312-181 total yardage) and the Beavers scored all five times they had the ball.
TURNING POINT: Momentum flipped when Evan Worthington intercepted a pass with 9:22 remaining in the third quarter for the lone turnover of the game when Oregon State was driving and looking to go ahead by two scores. Worthington’s pick set up the Buffs at the OSU 46. The Buffs needed just 6 plays to score the go-ahead TD on a 9-yard run by Phillip Lindsay for a 21-19 lead. It was a back-and-forth game after that with CU scoring last with 1:34 left for the game-winning points on a 13-yard slant pass from Steven Montez to Bryce Bobo.
RECAP/NUMBERS DON’T LIE:
The anticipated running back duel between CU’s Phillip Lindsay and OSU’s Ryan Nall did not disappoint. Lindsay finished with 185 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 28 carries while Nall was virtually a 1-man wrecking crew in the second half, finishing with 172 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns on 24 carries.
Steven Montez was 14-of-24 for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns and came up big on CU’s final scoring drive, connecting on 4-of-4 passes for 54 yards, including the final 13-yard strike to Bobo between a pair of Oregon State defenders on a slant pass.
After Worthington’s INT, the Buffs scored touchdowns on three of their final four possessions.
Red zone numbers: CU was 4-of-4 with 4 TDs in the red zone, while Oregon State was 7-of-7 but scored just 3 TDs and kicked 4 field goals. The Buffs scored the lone non-red zone TD of the day when Lindsay burst through the OSU defense for a 74-yard TD on CU’s second possession of the game.
The first half of Saturday’s game look hauntingly similar to the Arizona game based on how Oregon State moved the ball, totaling 312 yards and scoring on all five possessions – TD and 4 FGs. But, as we said, forcing OSU to settle for field goals four times proved the difference in the game.
Trailing 16-7, CU pieced together a key 10-play, 73-yard drive to pull within 16-14 on an 11-yard TD pass from Montez to Bobo with 1:42 left in the second quarter. Bobo came up big for the Buffs with nine receptions for 126 yards and 2 TDs on the afternoon.
In the final 3-1/2 minutes of the third quarter, Oregon State drove 75 plays in 6 plays for the go-ahead TD on a 13-yard run by Nall. On the final 3 plays of the drive, Nall totaled 52 yards rushing and receiving. Nall had 110 yards rushing on 17 carries at the end of the third quarter.
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Four of CU’s five TD drives traveled 79, 73, 88 and 82 yards. The latter two drives occurred mostly in the fourth quarter. The Buffs replied to Nall’s 13-yard TD run with 20 seconds left in the third quarter (gave OSU 26-21 lead) with an impressive 18-play, 88-yard drive for the go-ahead TD on a 9-yard pass from Montoz to Bobo with 8:53left. The Buffs ran the ball 10 straight times at one point on the drive (a pass play was nullified by a penalty) with Lindsay carrying 7 times.
The potential do-or-die game-winning drive began at the CU 18 with 4:14 left. It ended 82 yards later on Bobo’s second TD catch of the game, both in the fourth quarter.
OSU had a final opportunity to force overtime, but a 52-yard field goal attempt fell a few yards short as time expired.
FOUR TAKEAWAYS:
1. The defense is still a work in progress: The Buffs had the red zone stops in the first half, Worthington’s interception early in the third quarter and the stop at the end, but Oregon State scored on 7 of 10 possessions and totaled 569 yards. They punted only once. The Beavers entered the game with the Pac-12 worst offense at 321.2 yards per game. They hardly looked the part on Saturday. Next week, the Buffs face Washington State’s prolific Air Raid in Pullman. The Cougars were shut down by Cal in a 37-3 loss Friday night at Cal, but QB Luke Falk is widely regarded as one of the top players at his position in the country.
2. CU’s ball security is outstanding: One of the secrets to winning on the road at the FBS level is not turning the ball over. The Buffs had zero turnovers for the third straight game on Saturday. They have played four turnover-free games in 2017 and have not committed a turnover for 13 straight quarters. Limiting turnovers is always a major key to success. The Buffs are now plus-3 in turnover margin.
3. Limiting teams to field goals in the red zone keeps you in most football games: As we discussed, holding Oregon State to a TD and 4 field goals in 5 first-half trips allowed the Buffs to stay close before they pounced in the second half. Coming into the game, Colorado ranked second in the Pac-12 in red zone defense (13-18, 72.2 pct.) with seven TDs and 6 FGs allowed. After Saturday, CU’s red zone scoring percentage rose 7.8 points to 80 percent (20-25; 10 TD, 10 FG), but the red zone TD percentage increased by less than 2 percentage points to 40 percent (10-25) from 38.9 (7-18).
3. Phillip Lindsay is a stud: Lindsay has the most carries of any Pac-12 running back (150) b a wide margin coming into the weekend. You could argue that no conference team relies as much on one player as the Buffs rely on Lindsay. His 185 rushing yardsSaturday at OSU put him within 5 yards of the 1,000-yard mark going into the WSU game next week. The Buffs ran the ball 41 times in Corvallis with Lindsay carrying it 28 times. Remember, he set a new school record for rushing attempts in a game (41) and also became Colorado’s all-time leader in all-purpose yards in last week’s loss to Arizona. Last two games? Lindsay has 466 rushing yards on 69 carries, an average of 6.75 yards per attempt. His most impressive statistic, though, is this: Just 2 of those 69 carries have produced negative yardage.