Bad losses in men’s college basketball are something of an occupational hazard. Even the best teams in the sport have subpar showings and lose to underwhelming opponents who they’d typically crush under better, more usual circumstances. When the result of a game is dependent upon the actions and decisions of college-aged men, there’s bound to be some variance and wackiness.

Off nights can be excused. What has happened to Colorado through the first two months of its 2022-23 season might be a little more difficult to reconcile.

The Buffs’ uneven first 15 games of the season have come with some notable highs – with a Nov. 13 pseudo-road win against now-No. 8 Tennessee standing as the apex – but also some potential devastating setbacks. Two days before the aforementioned victory against the Volunteers, Colorado fell in stunning fashion against Grambling, losing by nine points. Only days after the Tennessee win, it lost to Massachusetts.

Its most recent setback was maybe its most surprising, an 80-76 defeat on Dec. 31 against a Cal team that entered the game just 1-13, with losses to, among others, Eastern Washington, UC Davis, UC San Diego, Southern and Texas State. The Buffs didn’t just lose the game, but were out-played, trailing for all but 2:38 of the 40-minute contest and falling behind by as many as 21 points in the second half.

Those stumbles have raised questions about this Colorado team and what it might be able to accomplish the remainder of the season. One longer-term worry has increased relevance after the Cal loss – the Buffs’ NCAA Tournament resume.

Assessing the postseason viability of a 9-6 team a few days into the new year may seem premature, but at this point, Colorado’s track record has several marks on it that will be tough to remove and overcome. A team’s NCAA Tournament hopes hinge at least partially on its NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which effectively replaced the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) several years ago. As of Jan. 2, the Buffs are 74th after being ranked 57th heading into the Cal game.

That places it well outside the field of 68 that make the NCAA Tournament, especially since automatic bids from smaller conferences will boost up squads ranked well behind Colorado, but a closer look at the Buffs’ NET profile reveals even more problems. A team’s games are grouped into four quadrants, based on the quality of opponent and whether or not the game occurred at home or on the road. In Quad Three and Quad Four games – theoretically, the easiest ones on a team’s schedule – Colorado is 5-4, with a 3-3 mark in Quad Three games and a 2-1 mark in Quad Four games. On its way to a 21-12 finish last season, which left it outside the NCAA Tournament field, it was 14-3 in such games, going 9-0 against Quad Four competition. Four of the Buffs’ six losses have come against teams ranked outside the NET top 100 – Massachusetts (No. 134), Washington (No. 144), Grambling (No. 181) and Cal (No. 299).

Those sorts of setbacks can have devastating consequences if the Buffs finish the season strongly enough to merit NCAA Tournament consideration. That number of Quad Three and Quad Four losses is extremely rare for teams that ultimately end up on the right side of the tournament’s bubble. Of the 10 lowest-rated at-large teams in the 2022 NCAA Tournament field, only one squad – Rutgers, with three – had more than two losses between Quad Three and Quad Four opponents. Only two of those 10 teams had a Quad Four loss.

The most effective way for Colorado to enhance its resume is with quality wins. It’s how Rutgers, with seven Quad One wins last season, managed to sneak into the tournament. As of now, though, the remaining schedule only offers so many such opportunities. Thankfully for the Buffs, they’re 1-0 in Quad One games, with the win coming against Tennessee, but as things stand now, they have just six Quad One games left on their schedule – at UCLA, at Oregon, at Utah, at Arizona State, at Arizona and at home against UCLA.

Those numbers, of course, can change. UCLA and Arizona are both top-10 teams that have shown few signs of slowing down. Utah, USC and Arizona State are all off to solid starts. If some of the Pac-12’s teams start to fare better, Colorado’s chances for difference-making wins pick up.

But as things stand right now, the Buffs are in a hole. And while they still have time to climb out, it’s starting to dwindle.