Trace Travers, publisher of Cal Rivals, provides an in-depth look at the Bears ahead of this Saturday's matchup with Colorado in Berkeley.
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Q: To say that the Bears have suffered a lot of close losses (four one-possession losses, to be exact) would be an understatement. Is there a theme here? Why can't Cal seem to pull out wins in close games?
Trace Travers: It hasn’t been one thing for Cal this season. Against Nevada, it was an inability to throw the ball downfield and going away from the run.
Against TCU, an early blown 4th and 1, a botched PAT snap exchange, and a 50 yard TD run given up right before the half that had the Bears chasing points all game long.
Against Washington, Cal fumbled at the 1 yard line in overtime. Against Oregon, the Cal tackles struggled mightily against Kayvon Thibodeaux, and they couldn’t get the needed two yards to potentially tie.
There have been uncharacteristic issues with tackling, with penalties, 3rd down defense, and with an inability to cover, something you’d expect from a defense still replacing three NFL DBs over the last two seasons, but expectations were high this season. A 1-5 record is not what anyone expected at this point.
Q: Chase Garbers has been enjoying a good, albeit not great, senior season, while on the ground, Damien Moore seems to be running the ball effectively. At the skill positions, Garbers has three wideouts averaging at least 50 yards of receiving per game. What's your evaluation of how this offense has performed and where are its strengths/weaknesses?
TT: Cal’s offense has been very good at the beginning of games on their scripted plays, allowing Garbers to get into rhythm early.
He has a couple more weapons emerging, with Jeremiah Hunter and Trevon Clark showing up more as big play threats, along with Kekoa Crawford being an explosive threat.
Cal has scored 8 touchdowns on their first two drives of the game on those more scripted possessions (12 total possessions). On the 48 other drives they’ve had during those six games, Cal has scored only nine touchdowns.
It’s somewhat of an anomaly, but one that has to be looked at moving forward.
Cal’s running back room, led by Moore, Christopher Brooks (formerly known as Christopher Brown Jr.), and with Garbers as a running threat, has been effective at times, with Moore being a bigger cutback runner in the mold of former Cal RB and Denver Bronco CJ Anderson.
Brooks is a big back at 230 pounds who has been healthier week over week and has his most productive performance against Oregon last week.
Cal’s offensive line has been solid at the guard spots, but they haven’t pass-protected well over the last three games as they did in the early portion of the season, especially on the edges.
Q: Defensively speaking, how has that unit found success in 2021 while conversely, in what areas has it struggled or have teams exploited it?
TT: It has been an up and down year for the Cal defense, though they’ve improved since the second half of the Washington game.
There have been a number of adjustments early on toward playing younger guys, with true freshmen DB Lu-Magia Hearns, ILB Nate Rutchena, and ILB Femi Oladejo taking over reps from more established players at their positions.
Cal struggled early with the deep passing game and tackling, but have gradually improved in those respects, but not to the level that has been needed to win.
Cal’s been mostly good against the run, though they struggled against Travis Dye at Oregon a week ago and Zach Evans at TCU early in the year.
They’ve had a number of pass interference/holding calls for automatic first downs, 10 so far on the season.
While the likes of Cam Goode, Ethan Saunders, Marqez Bimage and Luc Bequette have had some pass rushing success, it hasn’t been consistent enough.
Defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon has called his group ‘consistently inconsistent,’ which is probably the best descriptor of this Cal team this year.
Q: Can you give me a broad evaluation of the Bears football program? How has recruiting been of late under Justin Wilcox and how do you think fans have evaluated his tenure in Berkeley?
TT: To put it frankly, this was supposed to be the year for Cal to challenge for the top of the division, if not the conference. Justin Wilcox has elevated the base of this Cal team, with regard to size and ability and there is more talent on board than when he got here.
The 2021 recruiting class was his best yet, with five of the top 10 Bay Area players staying home and getting a number of players from across the state and on the west coast.
With the year Cal is having, the doubts have crept in and there’s a significant crowd that has exchanged their tickets for pitchforks, with Wilcox having an 11-25 record in conference play over his time in Berkeley.
Recruiting in 2022 hasn’t been as good, with three of Cal’s top commits decommitting over the last month, as the Bears will need to hit the transfer portal over the coming months.
Obviously, Cal could run the table and things might look a bit rosier, but until that happens, people are not happy.
Q: Brief closing thoughts on the matchup and final score prediction?
TT: I expect a less than palatable game in Berkeley Saturday, with rain in the forecast. Cal, for whatever reason, has been better on the road than at home, but I think it depends on how much pressure Cal can get on Brendon Lewis Saturday.
I don’t expect this to be a high scoring matchup, with the over/under being 43.
Give me Cal 17, Colorado 16.