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5 Takeaways from the Pro Football Focus Analytics vs Washington State
1. Colorado's offensive grades were awful. Of players who saw the field for more than 10 snaps, the Buffs' did not have a single offensive player with a grade of over 70. Wide receiver Juwann Winfree had the best grade at a a just average 67.3.
2. Josh Kaiser had a rough day. The Buffs' OL consisted of (from left to right) Will Sherman, Aaron Haigler, Colby Pursell, Tim Lynott, and Josh Kaiser. None of them graded particularly well, but Kaiser's outing was the lowest graded OL, as he had an overall grade of 59.7. He allowed four quarterback pressures -- three were hurries and one was a sack on Steven Montez.
3. Not Montez's best outing. He didn't play particularly well as he was overthrowing receivers on the afternoon, but he didn't get a great deal of help around him either. He was sacked three times, had to throw the ball away twice, and his receivers dropped three passes. When blitzed, Montez's numbers are actually pretty good. He had a grade of 75.5 when blitzed, but when WSU didn't bring any extra guys, his grade dropped to 52.8. That could be for a number of reasons. When blitzed, Montez is forced to make a quick read and gets the ball out quick.
4. Strong play from Delrick Abrams Jr. In his last three games, the Buffs' cornerback had an overall grade of less than 70, but he had a solid game against the Cougars. His overall defensive grade of 73.4 was respectable, and he was thrown at 11 times but WSU only completed three of those passes for 26 yards and he recorded a pass break up.
5. Missed tackling was a big problem. The Buffs missed 15 tackles against WSU. To give you some perspective, the Buffs average 7.7 missed tackles per game, so the Buffs virtually doubled that number against WSU. According to PFF, Rick Gamboa missed three tackles, and Aaron Maddox, Davion Taylor, Javier Edwards, and Nick Fisher all missed two tackles.
Shenault's first game back from injury
The Buffs' star receiver caught 10 passes on 13 targets for 102 yards, but he didn't grade very well. He had an overall grade of 64.2, receiving grade of 62.0, drop grade of 47.1, and fumbling grade of 20.9. He dropped two passes and fumbled the ball on Saturday.
So while it wasn't his best game, he did catch 10 passes and went over 100 yards. It just goes to show how talented Shenault is when he had those kind of numbers and he wasn't at his best. Oh, and he wasn't even at 100% as he missed a few games with a toe injury.
On a related note, Shenault was not named a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff award. Because he's missed a few games, his chances at the award suffered. He's tied for 24th in the country in receiving yards.
WSU-CU game notes from cubuffs.com
Colorado’s injuries have kept mounting; with two more starters out of the lineup for the first time today (OT Frank Fillip, WR K.D. Nixon), they are the 11th and 12th to miss at least one game this season. They join CB Delrick Abrams (1 game), OLB Jacob Callier (6), P Alex Kinney (8), WR Jay MacIntyre (2), CB Chris Miller (3), WR Laviska Shenault (3), OG Brett Tonz (1), WR Juwann Winfree (4), S Evan Worthington (2) and PKs James Stefanou and Evan Price (the last 4 between the two; counting them as one). And this doesn’t include two likely starters ruled out for the season, OL Isaac Miller and TE Jared Poplawski, or DE Jase Franke (4 games) who rotated in on the line.
And three of CU’s top special teams performers missed today with injuries: TB Beau Bisharat (CU’s special teams points leader), DB Lucas Cooper and CB Kevin George.
First Quarter Buffs. Colorado has now outscored the opponent 87-31 in the first quarter; the Buffs have not allowed a first quarter touchdown for five straight games, which is tied for the seventh-longest active streak nationally.
INDIVIDUAL LINER NOTES
TB Travon McMillian (9-73, 1 TD rushing)He is approaching a 1,000-yard season, as through today he has 910 yards on the year.He had his fourth play this season of 50 yards or longer with his 64-yard run in the first quarter; that goes with two 75-yard runs and a 57-yard reception. He is just the fourth player at CU to have four or more plays from scrimmage in a single season that include at least one rush and one reception, joining Cliff Branch (1971), Jeff Campbell (1989) and Mike Pritchard (1990).
WR Laviska Shenault (10-102 receiving; 1-8 rushing)He returned after missing three full games to catch his average of passes per game coming in, and he had his fifth 100-yard game of the year, tied for the fourth-most in a single-season at (three had six). For the year, he now has 70 receptions (seventh-most for a CU single season), 882 yards (12th most), or 12.6 per. He will not qualify for the national statistics unless he plays in the next two games to reach the NCAA minimum 75 percent of a team’s games played. With the 102 yards, he became the 30th player in CU history to hit 1,000-yard mark for a career (1,050; he passed Jay MacIntyre into 29th).
QB Steven Montez (35-20-0, 199, 0 TD, 104.9 rating; 4-minus 15 rushing; 184 yards total offense)With 199 yards passing, he moved into fourth place on CU’s all-time passing yards list (6,587, passing Kordell Stewart (6,481), who ironically was in attendance today as he was inducted into CU’s Athletic Hall of Fame. With 184 yards of total offense, he now has 7,343, passing Joel Klatt (7,245) and Cody Hawkins (7,250) into third place; he trails Stewart (7,770) and Sefo Liufau (10,509).
CB/KR Ronnie Blackmon (2-28 punt returns)He now has 266 punt return yards this year, the most since Josh Smith had 292 in 2008; only three Buffs have had 300 or more the last 25 seasons (Roman Hollowell, 522 in 2001; Jeremy Bloom 336 in 2002; and Chase McBride 316 in 2007).
ESPN Football Power Index Breakdown
The Buffs (5-5, 2-5 Pac-12) have just two games remaining on the 2018 schedule, as they host Utah this Saturday and travel to Cal on the 24th.
According to ESPN's FPI, the Buffs have just a 22.5% chance to beat Utah and a 31.3% to knock off Cal. FPI gives CU a 6.9% chance to win both games.
Colorado's remaining strength of schedule is ranked No. 17 in the country.
FPI also ranks Colorado as the No. 61 team in the country.
Next up: Utah
Saturday is senior day as the Buffs host Utah (7-3, 5-3) at 11:30 a.m. MT. It's a pivotal game for both teams.
Colorado would like to send the seniors off with a win, reach bowl eligibility, and stop an awful five game losing skid. For Utah, this Saturday's contest is their last Pac-12 game of the season, as they play BYU the following week. If the Utes beat CU, they'll need Arizona State to lose to either Arizona or Oregon to reach the Pac-12 Championship Game against either Washington State or Washington.
In a 32-25 win against Oregon on Saturday, the Utes were without QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zach Moss, but it didn't matter. Jason Shelley performed admirably, throwing for 262 yards and rushing for two scores, and Armand Shyne ran for 174 yards and a touchdown.
Utah is second in the Pac-12 in points allowed per game (19.7) and allow a Pac-12 best 101.7 rushing yards per game.
Tracking the freshman
The following true freshman Buffs have played in more than four games and cannot redshirt: Israel Antwine, Daniel Arias, Frank Fillip, Hasaan Hypolite
The following are still on track to redshirt: Jarek Broussard, Tava Finau, Casey Roddick, Dimitri Stanley (has played in three games, can only play in one more to keep redshirt), Blake Stenstrom, Deion Smith, LJ Wallace, Ray Robinson, Dustin Johnson, Dylan Thomas, Brock Miller, Devin Lynch, Evan Price, James Townsend, Jake Yurachek, Josh Jynes, Kanaan Ray, Colby Keiter, Tyler Francis, Jalen Sami
Could Washington State make the College Football Playoff?
As a fan of the Pac-12, you want to see Washington State make the CFP. Since it started in 2015, the Pac-12 has only reached the CFP twice (Oregon, Washington) and you'd like to see the Conference of Champions send a team every year.
Washington State is the Pac-12's last hope to make the CFP this season, as the Cougs are a one-loss team. They will need to win out to make it, and that's doable, as they face Arizona and Washington at home, and then would play in the Pac-12 Championship Game if they beat the Huskies.
Just how long of a shot is it? Well, let's look at the one loss teams that are ranked ahead of WSU. Michigan still has to play Ohio State. Georgia has to play Alabama. Oklahoma still has to play West Virginia. LSU has two losses so they shouldn't even be ranked ahead of WSU, and the Cougs will jump them eventually.
But if Ohio State and West Virginia do win those contests, could they, who are also one loss teams, jump the Cougars? It's possible.
All in all, if WSU wins out, they have a shot at the CFP.
Pac-12 Schedule and Standings
Utah @ Colorado - 11:30 am MT Pac-12 Networks
USC @ UCLA - 1:30 pm MT FOX
Oregon State @ Washington - 2:30 pm MT Pac-12 Networks
Stanford @ Cal - 5:30 pm MT Pac-12 Networks
Arizona State @ Oregon - 8:30 pm MT Pac-12 Networks
Arizona @ Washington State - 8:30 pm MT ESPN
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Pac-12 North
Washington State 9-1 (6-1 Pac-12)
Washington 7-3 (5-2)
Stanford 6-4 (4-3)
Cal 6-4 (3-4)
Oregon 6-4 (3-4)
Oregon State 2-8 (1-6)
Pac-12 South
Utah 7-3 (5-3)
Arizona State 6-4 (4-3)
Arizona 5-5 (4-3)
USC 5-5 (4-4)
Colorado 5-5 (2-5)
UCLA 2-8 (2-5)