After another wild college football Saturday, Colorado and three other Big 12 teams are in a four-way tie at the top of the conference with a variety of scenarios to make it into the Big 12 championship.
The Buffs' path to the title game got a lot murkier after losing to Kansas at Arrowhead Stadium over the weekend. Arizona State, Iowa State, Colorado and BYU each have 6-2 records in conference entering the final week of the season.
Arizona State gave BYU its second loss in the Sun Devils’ 28-23 win in Tempe. Iowa State was able to escape Utah in a 31-28 win at Rice-Eccles Stadium and Kansas had its way with the Buffs in that 37-21 result in Kansas City.
With the current four-way tie, there are various tiebreakers, but unfortunately for Colorado, most of the scenarios favor an Iowa State and Arizona State matchup. Colorado isn’t completely out of the title game conversation just yet, but it all starts for the Buffs securing a win against Oklahoma State on Friday at Folsom Field.
The four teams share four common opponents with Kansas, Kansas State, Utah and Central Florida. Arizona State has the best record at 4-0 against these opponents, while BYU sits 3-1, Iowa State 3-1 and Colorado at 2-2. The Buffs' losses to Kansas and Kansas State this year could likely be the deciding factors as both ASU and BYU had better performances against those teams. BYU beat Kansas State 38-9 and had a close 17-13 loss to Kansas. Arizona State won both of their games against the Jayhawks and Wildcats.
First and foremost, Colorado needs to secure a win against Oklahoma State (3-8, 0-8) to have a chance. If Colorado succeeds, it's going to need teams that haven’t had the most success this season to claim wins against some of the Big 12's top teams. There are two scenarios in which CU can head to the championship with a win against Oklahoma State.
1. Colorado would need two of the following to happen: Arizona (4-7, 2-6) beats Arizona State (9-2, 6-2), Kansas State (7-3, 4-3) beats Iowa State (9-2, 6-2), Houston (4-7, 3-5) beats BYU (9-2, 6-2). If any two of Arizona State, Iowa State or BYU lose, Colorado is in with a win.
2. The other is if only BYU loses from the group and Texas Tech (7-3, 5-3) beats West Virginia (6-5, 5-3) for common opponent win percentage reasons.
A win against Oklahoma State would keep Colorado’s Big 12 championship hopes alive until the weekend, but CU's losses against Kansas State and Kansas may be too much to overcome ultimately.
While it may look bleak for the Buffs, conference play this season has been somewhat unpredictable and exciting as it has created the current situation of a four-way tie and nine Big 12 teams (including the five tied at 5-3 in the standings, if all of the top four teams lose) technically still in contention for the title game.
If the Buffs secure a win against Oklahoma State, eyes will be on Kansas State, Arizona and Houston to give Colorado the help it needs.
